郑板桥

Why Finland & Sweden's NATO Future is Uncertain, Fraught With Economic & Security Risks_我的网站

A |     杭州，长江三角洲的创新高地之一，也是光伏下一代技术革新的重要孕育之地。

B |                    朝着余杭区前行，穿过熙攘城区后，杭州未来科技城映入眼帘，全球首家实现了第三代钙钛矿光伏组件量产的公司就扎根于此。

C |                    一只三足金乌、一个太阳元素——构成了纤纳光电的公司LOGO。

D |     "The accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO constitutes a test of loyalty to the western bloc, in particular to the US and Great Britain, which are the real geopolitical and geostrategic beneficiaries of the ongoing conflict," said Dr. Tiberio Graziani, chairman of Vision & Global Trends International Institute for Global Analyses.,The two Nordic countries' neutrality differs. Sweden had not joined a military alliance or participated in any war since 1814, with its neutrality being flexible, self-declared and not enshrined in law, as the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars noted in its 2 February 2022 study.,In contrast, Finland's neutrality was stipulated by the Paris Peace Treaty of 1947 which was signed after the end of the Second World War between the Allied powers - including the USSR, the UK, the US and France - and former Nazi Germany allies, such as Italy, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria and Finland.,"This definitely appears to be a violation of Finland’s international agreements signed after WWII with the Soviet Union then later Russia," said Earl Rasmussen, executive vice-president of Eurasia Group, citing the 1947 treaty as well as the 1992 Russo-Finnish treaty.,It raises questions as to whether benefits from the abandoned neutrality will outweigh potential security risks for the two Nordic states.,"I am puzzled by how this inclusion will provide increased security, it appears it will likely further deteriorate relations between Russia and the EU and more specifically with Finland and Sweden," Rasmussen said. "Strategically, I am not sure what the real impact will be. Essentially, both Finland and Sweden are de facto NATO members to include coordination and joint exercises. However, tensions will likely increase and increased defensive measures will likely occur in Russia’s northern regions as well as Kaliningrad.",Why Finland & Sweden’s NATO Admission Is So Important to the US16 May, 19:17 GMT,What Do Finns and Swedes Think About NATO Membership?,Meanwhile, popular support for NATO membership in both Nordic states has never been high.,According to a 2021 poll commissioned by EVA Finnish Business and Policy Forum, around 26% of Finns were in favor of joining NATO, 40% against and 33% remained undecided. A January 2022 Demoskop survey showed 42% of Swedes supporting NATO accession and 37% of respondents opposed it.,The Russian special operation in Ukraine is said to have invigorated NATO proponents in both Nordic countries. Rasmussen noted that recent surveys in Finland have shown a spike in support up to 76%. However, in Sweden, support to join NATO has remained relatively low, climbing to just 47%, according to him.,Meanwhile, unlike Sweden, Finland shares a 1,340 km (830 mi) border with Russia and has maintained longstanding economic relations with Moscow for decades. As of 2019, Finland imported around 60% of its energy from Russia with the latter being the fourth largest importer of Finnish goods in 2017, according to the Wilson Center. Furthermore, Russian speakers constitute the third largest ethnic group in the Nordic country.,Putin: If NATO Infrastructure is Deployed to Finland & Sweden, Russia Will Respond in ‘Mirror Way’01:02 GMT,"Even during the Cold War, both states were neutral and non-NATO members, with Finland developing strong economic and trade relations with Russia," the Eurasia Group vice-president explained. "As trade degrades and energy sharing diminishes there will likely be a strain placed on the economies, mostly with Finland.",Moscow has repeatedly underscored that Russia harbors no hostile intentions against either Nordic country, yet also signaling that the latest NATO expansion will not make the continent more stable or secure. Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that the Kremlin has "nothing that could worry us in terms of Finland or Sweden's membership in NATO," adding, however, that if military equipment or troops are deployed along the border, Moscow will have to "respond in a mirror manner and create the same threats in the territories from which they threaten us.",There is yet another controversy surrounding Sweden and Finland's accession to the western military bloc: neither Nordic state has held a popular referendum to find out whether the public has really weighed all the pros and cons of NATO membership.,"Political leadership in both countries is taking a certain degree of risk to push forward the joining without a public referendum," Rasmussen said. "I am sure Washington and Brussels realize that risk.",In addition to that, NATO accession may increase political polarization in both Nordic states, according to the Eurasia Group vice-president. In particular, "the Finnish government is made up of several political parties with no single party having a clear majority, hence requiring partnerships being established," he noted, adding that worsening economic conditions could "potentially create divisions politically and thus alignments could easily change.",Meanwhile, the Swedish left has lashed out at the government and the Social Democrats over Stockholm's NATO admission deal with Ankara. According to Expressen, the Greens and the Left Party are mooting a no-confidence vote against Foreign Minister Ann Linde.,Bank of England Head: UK To Face More Inflation Than Other Major Economies10:47 GMT,Why NATO's 2% Requirement Appears Unrealistic Today,NATO rules may trigger further controversy as they will require Sweden and Finland to spend 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) on their defense budgets. Even though the Nordic countries have committed to reaching the benchmark by 2024, the long-term viability of their promises is in question, given skyrocketing inflation in Europe.,Inflation in Finland has recently risen to its highest level in over 30 years, hitting 7.1% in May. In April, the country's consumer price index (CPI), a popular gauge for inflation, stood at 5.7%, according to Statistics Finland.,Likewise, annual inflation in Sweden jumped from 6.4% in April to 7.3% in May, according to the country's Consumer Price Index with fixed interest rate (CPIF).,"To this end, just as the Ukrainian people are sacrificed, so the economies of European countries will be sacrificed, including Finland and Sweden," forecast Graziani. "Very difficult economic and social months await us in Europe. It will be a very hot autumn. Political crises in various countries of the European Union are likely to be hypothesized.",EU member states, the UK and the US are taking efforts to tame galloping inflation which throws their capability of adhering to NATO requirements into question. To complicate matters further, the UK is calling to step up funding and arming of Ukraine "until victory" amid the Russian special operation.,"The US and UK are using the conflict in Ukraine to pressure greater EU involvement and support to include NATO contributions," said Rasmussen. "While it is being projected that member states will meet their 2% objectives by 2024, based on developing economic conditions and a pending recession, I question the realism of that projection. Increasing real contributions for defense along with rising tensions between the EU and Russia may prove challenging as economic conditions worsen resulting in political disruptions across Europe.",Meanwhile, the US is not in its best shape either, according to Rasmussen. The country steadily moves forward into a potentially deep recession; increased tensions with China; emerging challenges in Latin America; tensions with Iran; and economic challenges at home. The scholar believes that it is likely one will see a major political change in the US in 2022 midterms, in 2024 and beyond.,What’s more, as the Republican Party becomes increasingly influenced by MAGA supporters, Trump's skepticism towards the NATO alliance may get a second wind in 2024. And this raises further questions about the future of the Cold War-era military bloc.。三足金乌，源自中国传统神话，是驾驭日车的神鸟。                   10月，《中国企业家》见到纤纳光电联合创始人兼CEO姚冀众时，已成立十年的公司，正处在他口中的“危机时刻”。因为如今的光伏行业，正经历着前所未有的周期低谷，投资放缓、内外部信心正在重铸，这对作为下一代技术的钙钛矿，形成了极大的打击。                   但就在今年5月，公司CTO颜步一以论文第一作者暨通讯作者的身份，在顶级期刊《科学》杂志上发表了一篇关于钙钛矿的研究成果。                   团队已攻克了钙钛矿薄膜在大面积制备中结晶均匀性的世界性难题，从而实现了平米级组件产品的稳定、批量生产。业内对此有共识，这是钙钛矿技术从实验室走向规模化应用的关键一跃。                   姚冀众把它看作是新的开始。他从不质疑自己正在做的事，采访中提到了近十次，“我一直不怀疑‘光伏能用’这件事。”在他的规划里，钙钛矿也一定是下一代技术路线。                   姚冀众描述的创业源头，是一场偶然的“蹭饭”。那个阶段的海归博士，多数都是三选一——海外工作、回国工作或者回国创业。碰巧在十字路口，杭州未来科技城向他抛出了回国创业的橄榄枝。

E |                    姚冀众总说创业过程遇到了很多困难，但他并没有为某个决定感到惋惜，也把自己比作“幸运儿”，“35岁的职业迷茫期，我是基本没有的。我一直在自己擅长的领域闯荡，并把喜欢的事情做成，这很有成就感。”                    2015年回国后，他和两位光伏专业背景的浙江大学校友一起创业，搭起了简陋的实验室。

F | “没有现成设备，就委托加工；没有成熟工艺，就自己摸索。”姚冀众笑着回忆，团队招的第一个员工是出纳。                   纤纳光电联合创始人兼CEO姚冀众来源：受访者                    相对于诸多初创公司四处找“钱”的窘迫，他坦言自己是幸运的，从没有因为钱而耽误研发进程。

G |                    如今团队已从3人扩张到300余人，成为“大家长”的姚冀众还在努力适应身份变化，“很多事情等着你拍板，牵扯人力、市场，擅长的不擅长的都有，还是会有压力。

H | ”                    过去五年，钙钛矿得到了概念性的认证，纤纳光电也落地了全世界第一个钙钛矿和钙钛矿/晶硅四端叠层的光伏电站。站在“十五五”时期新开端，姚冀众用“正常发展，保持订单增长”来概括未来五年的公司构想。在那个阶段，钙钛矿产品应该能够较大规模地投入市场验证和应用。                   “制造业是没有捷径的，把没人干过的事干成、干好，是很难的。”姚冀众说，“现在处在1到100这个比较痛苦的阶段，钙钛矿的路还很长，但只要方向对，就不怕远。

I | ”                    “蹭顿晚餐”                    姚冀众的创业开始得很偶然。                   2014年的一天，还在英国帝国理工学院物理系攻读博士的他，和同学偶然参加了一场浙江省在海外的招商推荐会。“其实那时候是听说所在的酒店晚餐比较好，我们想去蹭个饭。

J | ”后来交谈中，他才得知国内的创业环境和政策，此前知之甚少。                   也是在这次晚餐中，姚冀众了解到国内已经对钙钛矿相关产品做了重大专项，但并没有公司真正启动。“我意识到这可能是个机会，所以在同步准备毕业论文的时候，就着手回国创业。”姚冀众回忆，那是一段极其紧张的过程。

K |                    他先是说服了从浙江大学前往澳大利亚读书的同学颜步一，两人很一致地看好钙钛矿的前景，又在回国后，说服杨旸加入初创团队。                   这段经历也让他们在公司成立后，相对默契地形成了内部分工——姚冀众作为创业的发起人，操盘公司采买、组建等大小事宜，颜步一出任CTO，杨旸则专注在研发，担任公司的首席科学家。                   决定做钙钛矿并没有在姚冀众的人生规划之外，大学时期，他的经历就与这件事密不可分。                   2006年本科就读于浙江大学期间，他便将有机光伏材料定为研究方向，并曾赴澳大利亚新南威尔士大学学习光伏相关知识。当时，这所大学被称作是光伏商业化的“鼻祖”，大量技术诞生于此，中国第一批光伏企业中的代表无锡尚德创始人施正荣就从这里毕业。

L |                    他学习了不少光伏技术的实践课程，“光伏能用”的理论种子也自此时种下。“一个类似小电站的并网实践课，能有12个学分，手把手教你太阳能电池是如何从0到1的。

M | ”姚冀众那时只觉得简单，现在才觉得真有用。                   那个阶段，他见证了光伏晶硅技术的成熟，也看到了其成本瓶颈——晶硅生产依赖高纯度硅料和复杂的提纯工艺，但有机光伏材料成本仅为晶硅的十分之一，且制备过程更低碳。“当时教授带着我们算过一笔账，按度电成本模型推演，光伏未来一定能比煤电便宜。”姚冀众说。                   纤纳光电钙钛矿产线。

N | 来源：受访者                    他的心态也开始从理论学习转向应用实践，他经常会问自己，学的东西怎么才能用在社会中。

o |                    “水电、风能、核能等绿色能源里，也就光电跟我专业相关。”他一直到后来攻读博士，跟着导师顺带着做了钙钛矿有机-无机杂化太阳能电池研发的项目，才算真正扎进这个赛道。                   十年前，钙钛矿属于“冷门技术”。公司刚成立时，姚冀众坦言自己也没底，“当时有政策，又觉得创业环境好，更多是‘想试试’的冲动。”                    不过到了2015年，他就很坚定钙钛矿这条技术路线了。

p | “这是一个必经方向，而且会替代晶硅。”那个时候，晶硅的价格大约在3～4元/瓦，他估算钙钛矿能够到1元/瓦。                   “998号玻璃楼”                    现在回忆，姚冀众觉得那时创业就是“初生牛犊不怕虎”。                   杭州未来科技城的998号玻璃楼一楼，是纤纳光电开始的地方。那时候，他们在一楼的门面房搭起了几百平方米的实验室，连设备都是委托加工的。

q |                    据了解，2015年，晶硅几乎垄断着光伏市场，实验室的光转化效率已经能达到26%，但钙钛矿电池的效率仅3%。姚冀众说，“那时候对需要多少钱，公司要到什么规模，都没有明确的概念。

r | 落到PPT上，他理想地对技术迭代、成本控制、产能释放做了一些承诺。”                    但纤纳光电的第一步还算顺利。除了政府的创业扶持资金，在公司成立的第一年，他就拿到了一笔超1000万元的投资。在当时的钙钛矿赛道中，这是一笔不小的资金。投资方是浙江一家上市公司的董事长，对新能源行业很了解，也感兴趣，以至于姚冀众并没有花费很大精力就说服了对方。                   他还跟另外两位创始人东拼西凑了一部分资金，合计近2000万元的初始资金已是全部家当，“当时觉得这已经是很大的资金了，并没有意识到并不足以支撑研发，也没想到钙钛矿商业化这件事会这么难。”                    起初两年，他更多的精力放在团队组建和研发培训上。那时候国内有一批拥有光伏技术背景的人才。2016年，公司的组织架构才相对稳定，创始人的分工也更具象化：颜步一和杨旸更多精力投身实验室，姚冀众则要对实验室的策划、方案和细节进行把控。

s |                    2017年，纤纳光电第一次走入行业视线——小试线产品打破了钙钛矿小组件效率的世界纪录，这让它受到更多资本机构的关注。                   但姚冀众并没有为此感到轻松，数据的突破仅仅是开始，从实验室的小尺寸样品到工业化生产的大尺寸产品，中间隔着巨大的鸿沟。“小样品能做到18%的效率，放大到1.2米×0.6米的组件，效率可能掉一半，结晶的可控性、镀膜的均匀性、封装工艺都是难题。                   只是搭产线这一关，团队就用了四年。2019年，他们本来要在衢州建设20兆瓦中试线，遇上工地停工、设备运输受阻，姚冀众也只能在杭州远程指导施工。2020年底，这条当时全球最大的钙钛矿中试线终于投产；2021年，纤纳光电趁势推出首款建筑光伏一体化（BIPV）产品，实现了从实验室到市场端的跨越。                   纤纳光电衢州生产基地。

t | 来源：受访者                    “那时面临的最大问题不是钱，是技术，你要证明的东西太多了。”姚冀众要向市场证明钙钛矿技术可放大、效率不跌，并且能够使用20年。艰难时刻，他甚至要时不时地说服自己“确实能够搞定”。                   出钱买设备就一定能做出成功产品，这套理论在钙钛矿赛道并不成立。

u | 在中试线落地的阶段，他极其“痛苦”，团队做了大量的验证工作。

v | 姚冀众说：“没办法用次数衡量，一直在循环，你想不到会发生什么。”                    实验室能做好为什么放大不了？放大了为什么量产不了？产线的产品算不算好产品……团队面对着一连串的问题。                   “即便是在如今的钙钛矿市场，大多数企业也都还在产品试验阶段，产业化依旧处在前期的状态。”姚冀众表示，钙钛矿不同于晶硅的材料体系，是全新的配方和处理工艺，从设备开始到生产方式，都没有可借鉴的内容。                   2019年起，三峡集团旗下投资主体连续三次投资纤纳光电，北京能源集团也稍晚入局，姚冀众才越来越明确。

w | “央企不仅给了钱，更给了信任背书。”资金相对够用，他在那个阶段也很少接触民间资本。                   闯关                    姚冀众习惯于从成本反向推算公司在产品试线、产能、产品效率等维度上的发展进度，从目前的结果上看，和他预期的相差无几。

x |                    2021年，纤纳光电才算真正有了底气——试线产品验证了，产品放大后也能做成。于是在第二年，他们快速投产了100兆瓦新产线，这一全球首条百兆瓦级钙钛矿量产线一直运行到现在。                   同期公司的规模也快速增长，扩充到了近200人，销售团队初步搭建起来。                   2022年，为了推广钙钛矿，姚冀众四处奔走，拿下了第一个客户，也落地了首个BIPV项目，“我不预设哪个市场我不能做，我都去尝试，目的是打开市场。”                    在他的构想中，接下来钙钛矿应该快速起量，但这种局面仅维持了一年。他把2023年定义为“公司日子最好过的一年”，彼时晶硅电池的价格相对较高，在部分投资项目上，钙钛矿产品拥有价格优势。

y | 姚冀众一度认为，钙钛矿的春天就要来了。                   “2023年我们的成本比晶硅电池便宜，不到2元/瓦，晶硅电池原材料贵，产品价格超过了2元/瓦。”姚冀众说，那一年公司的营收规模达到了千万元级别。他们开始花钱投产能，投入了近3亿元布局吉瓦级产线。                   但光伏的周期波动比想象中来得猛烈。2023年，晶硅价格大幅下跌，从年初的2.3元/瓦跌至年底的1.3元/瓦，而纤纳光电的钙钛矿组件成本仍在1.9元/瓦左右。                   新产线项目也因这个变化放缓了建设。

z | 姚冀众回想起那段时光，“一下子从‘好卖’变成‘卖不动’，我们才意识到，光靠技术领先还不够。”                    “以前是没人做钙钛矿，现在是行业承压，新技术也受到了挤压。”他说这更像是公司的第二次转变。最初是以研发为核心，然后导向生产和销售，但现在是市场需要什么，他们就生产什么。也是去年，他明确要以销售、客户为中心，内部也完成了对销售团队的搭建。                   在姚冀众的判断里，他完全有能力在不缺钱的情况下渡过这次难关，虽然目前行业仍处在周期低谷，产能出清速度较慢。但在2022年完成的D轮融资，至少能够撑3～4年，“我们的资金情况，一直在安全红线之上”。                   去年，纤纳光电出货13兆瓦，按照规划，今年的预计出货量能达到20～30兆瓦。

| 公司进入到了“求稳”阶段，姚冀众明白，钙钛矿成为主流的时间还要往后推。对于他而言，先要用2年左右在度电成本上实现超越。                   市场预期也在向好。中商产业研究院分析师预测，今年国内钙钛矿电池市场规模将达到37.5亿元，而到了2030年，这个数字将达到950亿元。

|                    “想清楚为什么做，然后熬下去。

| ”姚冀众用一句话概括创业历程，“制造业创业比互联网慢多了，我们十年才从3人做到300人，还没盈利，但只要技术方向对，客户认，就有希望。”                    他坦言，最开始没想到会走这么久，但每次看到电站并网发电就觉得值。“别指望一步到位，从0到1难，从1到100更难，内部要学会分工，像我早期管研发、采购，现在更多盯市场和政策，团队要跟着企业一起成长。

|

Current article:http://ow60td.diaoengngtengdiachanpiezao.sbs/1p0/viok405.html

Published on:15:50:56